The Supply of Ethical Horn is Vastly More Than is Required to End Poaching
We produce enough ethical rhino horn to send seven to eight times more horn to Asia than poachers currently provide, all without harming a single animal.
At its peak, poaching was estimated to be sending roughly 5 tonnes (5,000 kilograms) of rhino horn from southern Africa to markets in Asia. With the recent decline in poaching productivity (despite a ten-fold increase in reported poaching efforts), the quantum of product reaching market is likely to be lower. For analytical purposes, however, let’s keep the 5 tonnes as our target.
We can ship 35 tonnes to market – seven to eight times the amount poaching delivered – for the next ten years. And we can deliver even more in the years that follow. All without a single animal ever again being hurt.
Between private and government conservation efforts in South Africa, Namibia, and Zimbabwe, we have an estimated 70-90 tonnes of horn in storage. Across all the reserves that now trim the horns of their rhino, we produce another 16 tonnes each year, and that grows at 9% - 14% annually.
If we use that 16 tonnes that is trimmed ‘fresh’ each year, and top it up with horn from storage, and we take into account a growth in horn production of just 10% per annum, we could ship roughly 35 tonnes of horn each year for the next ten years. By the eleventh year, our annual production of horn will exceed 40 tonnes per annum without relying on any stockpiles. By year fifteen, we could easily ship in excess of 70 tonnes a year.
If we throw eight times more horn at the market that it has ever seen, we will decimate the price paid for horn and destroy the business that drives poaching. These are simple economic realities.
Please let us know if you would like any of the key elements of this explained in greater detail.
